We’ve got a pair of game 4s Monday as the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors look to play for pride and avoid the four-game sweeps. Which team will stay alive?
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in each of these games.
- Philadelphia 76ers -6.5: 1.93
- Boston Celtics +6.5: 1.96
- Toronto Raptors +6.5: 1.87
- Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5: 2.02
- PHI/BOS OVER 204.5: 1.94
- PHI/BOS UNDER 204.5: 1.94
- TOR/CLE OVER 211.5: 1.79
- TOR/CLE UNDER 211.5: 2.12
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: In the first game, the odds at 1.94 indicate there’s about a 51 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER or UNDER 204.5. The total combined score stays below that number in over 62 percent of simulations, suggesting a good amount of value on the pick. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 102 – 95, in favor of Philly.
In the second game, the odds at 1.79 indicate there’s about a 56 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER 211.5. It goes OVER in 60 percent of AccuScore sims, again suggesting some added value on the pick. The average score in sims for game 4 is 109 – 108, Cleveland.
Which Series Will End?: AccuScore sim data is providing more value on each of the two teams down 0-3 in the series than most books are offering. With that said, though, the odds still expect the Cavaliers to win Game 4 and close the series out.
The value seems to be on Philly to push the series to at least a game 5 in Boston, as they cover 6.5-point spread 55 percent of the time.
Teams up 3-0: Al Horford’s go-ahead field goal with just seconds remaining in game 3 put the Boston Celtics up 3-0. In NBA history, teams up 3-0 in best-of-seven series are 129-0 all-time.
King James: LeBron James finished with 38 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds and the game-winner to push the Cavs to a 3-0 series lead.
James is projected to finish with 30 points, 10 assists, 9 rebounds and five turnovers.
The UNDER in the Philadelphia-Boston game.