NBA Tuesday – Celtics vs Bucks Game 5 Playoffs

The NBA playoffs continue this Tuesday when the Boston Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 of their best-of-seven first-round series. The Bucks won both games at home to even the series at two games apiece, with the favorite in this series going 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six meetings overall.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

NBA Odds

Spread

• Celtics -2.5: 1.90
• Bucks +2.5: 1.99

Total

• OVER 202.5: 1.80
• UNDER 202.5: 2.11

What to Watch For

Night and Day: We’ve seen two versions of Terry Rozier this series, one who scored 46 points in the first two games, then just 19 in the next two.

Rozier is projected to finish Game 5 with 11 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists

Horford the PG: The Celtics struggled against Milwaukee’s perimeter defense in Game 4, especially Matthew Dellavedova’s pressure on the guard bringing the ball up. With no Kyrie Irving or Marcus Smart, Boston has had to rely on wings and forwards to take on some of the ball handling responsibilities. It only happened once, but Al Horford bringing the ball up against one of Milwaukee’s bigs offered as a simple solution to the problem. Keep an eye out for more of that in Game 5.

Horford is projected to finish with 14 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 1 steal. 

Betting on the Total: Odds for the UNDER — at 2.11 — indicate there’s about a 47 percent chance the total combined score stays below 202.5. The total stays below that number in over 53 percent of simulations, suggesting some value on the UNDER at 2.11.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 103 – 98, Boston. The UNDER is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. 

Projected Leaders

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to lead Milwaukee with 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal and three turnovers. Khris Middleton averages 15 points and 3 assists in the simulations.

Jaylen Brown is projected to lead Boston with 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 turnovers. Jayson Tatum averages 15 points, 5 rebounds and 1 steal in the sims.

Analyst’s Pick

Celtics cover at home. 

Odds — at 1.90 — indicate there’s about a 53 percent chance the Celtics win this game by three points or more. The Celtics cover a 2.5-point spread in 63 percent of the simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.

The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Celtics.

Category: Basketball