Utah Jazz versus Houston Rockets

Utah Jazz versus Houston Rockets

The NBA Playoffs continue Tuesday when the Houston Rockets — up three games to one in their best-of-seven series — host the Utah Jazz with a chance to punch a ticket to the next round.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

NBA Odds

Spread

  • Rockets -11.5: 1.88
  • Jazz +11.5: 2.01

Total

  • OVER 208.5: 04
  • UNDER 208.5: 1.84

What to Watch For

 

Point GodChris Paul is coming off his first double-double of the series after finishing with 27 points and 12 rebounds in Game 4. If Houston wins this round, this will be Paul’s first trip to the conference final round of the playoffs.

 

Paul projected to finish Game 5 with 16 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and two turnovers. 

 

Betting on the Total: Odds for the UNDER — at 1.84 — indicate there’s about a 54 percent chance the total combined score stays below 208.5. The total hits the UNDER in 55 percent of simulations, suggesting very little added value on the pick.

 

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 107 – 98, Houston.

 

Live by the 3: The Rockets have hit an NBA record 10 or more three-pointers in the team’s last 15 postseason games.

 

Houston is projected to shoot 13-of-35 from beyond the arc in this game.  

 

Betting Trends

  • Head to head, the road team is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last five meetings.
  • Utah is 1-7 ATS in its last eight matchups overall, and 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games at Houston.

Projected Leaders

 

Donovan Mitchell is projected to lead Utah with 23 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, and five turnovers.

 

James Harden is projected to lead the home side with 30 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 steals and four turnovers.

 

Analyst’s Pick

 

Jazz cover.

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