Sunday Football analysis Southampton – Liverpool

Virgil Van Dijk

A handful of players — including Virgil Van Dijk, Sadio Mane, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain — will be returning to their former club this weekend as Southampton hosts Liverpool at St. Mary’s Stadium. Liverpool is fighting to stay in the top four, but enters this weekend’s match following a 2-2 draw last week vs Tottenham.

 

Liverpool is still the only team to beat Manchester City this season, but oup that win with losses to Swansea and West Brom. Southampton enters this match against Liverpool with a road win at West Brom, going undefeated in their last six matches.

 

Key Betting Trends

  • Historically, there is a lot of scoring when these two sides meet at St. Mary’s; recently, however, that hasn’t been the case. Just one goal was scored in the last two matches, compared to 12 in the two previous to that match.
  •  Liverpool is 11-1-5 in their last 17 Premier League matches.
  • The last Southampton player to score against Liverpool was Sadio Mane in March of 2016.

Dafabet Odds

  • Southampton to win: 4.49
  • Draw: 3.91
  • Liverpool to win: 1.81

What to Watch For

Will Mane Score?: Sadio Mane has scored six goals in his last five EPL appearances at St. Mary’s.

 

Mane averages over 2 shots per simulated match, with close to 1 being no goal. He has about a 34 percent chance of finding the back of the net, second only to Mohamed Salah Ghaly. Ghaly averages over 4 shots in the sims, 2 on goal, and has about a 55 percent chance of scoring at least 1 goal. 

 

Southampton’s Key to Staying Competitive: Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored four goals in their last six matches, and will largely dictate how competitive his side is in this match.

 

He does not have an impact in the simulations. 

 

Scoring on Both SidesBoth sides average 1-plus goal in the simulations. Keep in mind that Southampton have scored in nine of their last 10 matches overall, and in their last five EPL matches.

 

Accuscore Analyst’s Pick

 

Southampton has the side value in our simulations with the 22% win probability. 

 

A draw or Southampton to keep it within a goal is what we’re leaning towards. Klopp has lost six of his last eight against Southampton.

 

If you think Liverpool is going to win, might as well take the 2/1 odds that they score more than two goals at St. Mary’s. They average 2-plus goals in sims, and have scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight road victories.

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