NBA Tuesday – Miami Heat vs Philadelphis 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers will look to punch their ticket to the next round Tuesday night when they host the Miami Heat in game 5 of their best-of-seven series. Philly is up 3-1 in the series and are heading into this matchup as fairly heavy favorites in most books.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

NBA Odds

Spread

• Philadelphia 76ers -9.5: 1.87
• Miami Heat +9.5: 2.02

Total

• OVER 211.5: 1.96
• UNDER 211.5: 1.92

What to Watch For

Some Positive Signs: Despite the loss in Game 4, Miami did finally get a good game from Hassan Whiteside. He finished with 13 points and 13 rebounds in 26 minutes of action. More importantly, he held Joel Embiid to just 14 points, and forced him to finish the game with eight turnovers. Miami didn’t help themselves by missing 12-of-25 from the charity stripe, but they’ll need another game like that from Whiteside to push this to Game 6.

Whiteside is projected to finish with 11 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks. 

Betting on the Total: Odds for the UNDER — at 1.92 — indicate there’s about a 52 percent chance the total combined score stays below 211.5. The total stays below that number in over 60 percent of simulations, suggesting some value on the UNDER at 1.92.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 107 – 98, Philly. The UNDER is a one-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. 

Projected Leaders

Joel Embiid is projected to lead Philly with 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists.

Goran Gragic is projected to lead Miami with 16 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 steal.

Analyst’s Pick

Miami covers on the road. 

This is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend, with Miami covering in about 53 percent of simulated games.

Category: Basketball