NBA Finals – Warriors vs Cavs Game 3

The NBA Finals are back this Wednesday when the series switches over to Cleveland, OH as the Cavaliers get set to host the Golden State Warriors for Game 3 of their best-of-seven series. The Warriors won Game 2 122-103 to take a 2-0 lead.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

NBA Odds

Spread

• Golden State -4.5: 1.93
• Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5: 1.95

Team to Win

• Golden State : 1.52
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 2.68

Total

• OVER 217.5: 1.94
• UNDER 217.5: 1.95

What to Watch For

X-Factor in the Series: Will Andre Iguodala play? His impact on this series is very noticeable, at least his absence from it. In last year’s series vs Cleveland, Golden State outscored Cleveland by almost 19 points per 100 possessions with Iguodala playing, and by almost 12 points per 100 possessions when he was off the floor. The year before, the Cavs actually outscored the Warriors on a possession-by-possession basis when Iguodala was off the floor. His return to the lineup — at some point — may be the final dagger in Cleveland’s hopes.

Iguodala was included in AccuScore sims and he’s projected to finish with 6 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 steal. 

Shooting Struggles: Through two games so far, the Cavaliers have been missing jumpers they’ve made all year. They’re getting approximately 12 open looks per game this series from beyond the arc and making two-to-three of them.

The Cavs are projected to shoot 12-of-29 from three-point range in Game 3. 

Betting on the Spread: The Warriors are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games vs the Cavaliers.

The average score for Game 1 after 10,000 simulations is 112-111, in favor of the home team. 

Betting Trends

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Warriors’ last 8 games vs the Cavaliers.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Warriors’  9 games on the road vs the Cavaliers.

Projected Leaders

Steph Curry is projected to lead the Warriors with 26 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 4 turnovers. Kevin Durant averages 24 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in AccuScore sims.

LeBron James is projected to finish with 31 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 bloc and 5 turnovers. There are two other Cavs who average double-digit scoring in the sims — George Hill (11.3 points) and J.R. Smith (10.5 points).

Analyst’s Pick

Cleveland gets the win. 

This is a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Odds — at 2.68 — indicates there’s a 37.3 percent chance the Cavs win Game 3. That happens in approximately 54 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value on the pick.

Category: Basketball