NBA Thursday – Celtics vs Bucks Game 6
The NBA playoffs continue this Thursday when the Boston Celtics head to Milwaukee for Game 6 vs the Bucks in their best-of-seven first-round series. The Celtics won and covered in Game 5, like we said they would, and they’ll have a chance to close out the series this game.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
NBA Odds
Spread
- Bucks -5.5: 2.01
- Celtics +5.5: 1.88
Total
- OVER 200.5: 2.01
- UNDER 200.5: 1.87
What to Watch For
Horford the X-Factor: Big man Al Horford was huge for Boston in Game 5, finishing with 22 points, 14 rebounds and 2 blocks in 37 minutes of action.
Horford is projected to finish with 13 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block.
Betting on the Total: Odds for the UNDER — at 1.87 — indicate there’s about a 53.5 percent chance the total combined score stays below 200.5. The total stays below that number in over 58 percent of simulations, suggesting some value on the UNDER.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 98 – 97, Milwaukee. The UNDER is a one-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
Aggressive Greek Freak: Giannis Antetokounmpo took just ten field-goal attempts in game 5, his third-lowest total of the entire season. He still almost had a triple-double, but the Bucks lost 92-87 to find themselves down 3-2. Expect a more aggressive Giannis, especially in the first half.
Projected Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to lead Milwaukee with 19 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks and 3 turnovers. Khris Middleton averages 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in the simulations.
Jaylen Brown is projected to lead Boston with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists and 2 turnovers. Jayson Tatum averages 14 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists in the sims.
Analyst’s Pick
Celtics cover on the road.
Odds — at 1.88 — indicate there’s about a 53 percent chance the Celtics cover in Game 6.The Celtics cover a 5.5-point spread in 62 percent of the simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.
The Celtics are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games on the road vs the Bucks.
Category: Basketball
